Across the North East, there’s a noticeable shift in how energy businesses are talking about the market.
Not publicly. Not in press releases. But in conversations.
Because while the long-term direction of the energy sector is clear, what’s happening day-to-day on the ground is less straightforward. And that gap is starting to show.
A Market That Feels Unsettled (And the Numbers Back It Up)
For many in the North Sea supply chain, activity isn’t gone. But it isn’t consistent either. Projects move forward, then pause. Budgets open, then tighten. Opportunities appear, but with less certainty behind them.
Offshore Energies UK’s latest Business Outlook report put it plainly: operator confidence has softened, with capital expenditure forecasts for UKCS revised down for the second consecutive year. Wood Mackenzie data points to a 15-20% decline in sanctioned project volumesacross the North Sea basin compared to the 2022 peak.
The result is a stop-start environment. One where planning becomes harder, forecasting becomes less reliable, and businesses are left operating in shorter windows. That’s not a lack of demand. It’s a lack of clarity, and it’s being driven by a specific set of pressures.
What’s Actually Causing the Uncertainty
Three factors are compressing supply chain confidence right now:
The Energy Profits Levy. The windfall tax, extended through 2029 at 35%, has materially altered operator investment decisions. Several major operators have publicly reduced or deferred UKCS capex in direct response. The knock-on effect through the supply chain is real – fewer projects sanctioned means fewer scopes of work flowing downstream.
Operator consolidation. The wave of M&A activity across the basin, from major asset sales to full corporate restructuring, has created procurement paralysis in some organisations. Supplier lists are under review. Decisions are delayed while new ownership structures settle.
Energy transition pressure. Operators are simultaneously managing mature asset production and positioning for low-carbon portfolios. That split focus creates uneven spending, with some workstreams accelerating and others effectively on hold.
Understanding which dynamic is affecting your specific market position matters. The response to a tax-driven capex cut looks different from a response to procurement consolidation.
Work Still Exists. But Access Has Narrowed
There is still work in the market. Operators are still investing. Projects are still progressing. Requirements haven’t disappeared.
But access to that work has narrowed, and the reasons are structural, not cyclical. More competition. Longer decision cycles. Greater scrutiny before suppliers are brought into the conversation. And an increasing tendency for operators and Tier 1 contractors to default to established supplier networks when risk appetite is low.
One operations director at a mid-sized Aberdeenshire contractor put it simply: “We’re not losing work we had. We’re not being considered for work we should be in the running for.”
That’s a visibility problem. It’s something we see repeatedly across the North Sea supply chain right now.
Not just in the sense of brand awareness, but in being present and credible at the point where decisions start to take shape.
The Procurement Wall Is Real
For newer or smaller businesses, this environment presents a specific challenge that goes beyond marketing.
Larger operators and Tier 1 contractors are genuinely risk-averse right now. Approved vendor lists are tighter. Qualification processes are longer. And the informal access that used to open doors, picking up the phone, walking into an office, a conversation at an industry event, is harder to replicate in a digitally mediated procurement environment.
This isn’t gatekeeping for its own sake. When margins are under pressure and project timelines are scrutinised, procurement teams default to known quantities. It’s rational behaviour.
What it means in practice is that trust needs to be established before a conversation is even initiated. And the only way to build that trust at scale, before direct contact, is through how your business shows up online and in industry channels.
The Cost of Going Quiet
One of the patterns that consistently emerges in uncertain markets is this: businesses pull back on visibility. Marketing slows. LinkedIn activity drops. Thought leadership stops. Communication becomes reactive.
It’s understandable. When certainty drops, focus shifts inward. But this is also the moment when going quiet is most costly.
Buyers don’t stop making decisions because the market is uncertain. If anything, the scrutiny they apply intensifies. Research is more thorough. Shortlists are formed earlier. And suppliers who aren’t visible during that process simply aren’t in the conversation.
The evidence for this is consistent across B2B sectors: 70% of the buyer journey happens before a supplier is contacted(Gartner, 2023). In a risk-averse procurement environment, that figure is likely higher. Going quiet doesn’t protect you from a difficult market. It removes you from the markets that are still moving.
What This Means in Practice
For supply chain businesses navigating this environment, the commercial challenge has two distinct dimensions.
The first is operational: managing pipeline uncertainty, resourcing decisions, cost control. That’s internal and specific to each business.
The second is positional: and it’s where many businesses have more leverage than they realise. The questions worth asking directly:
Where do you sit in this market? Not in your own assessment, but in the minds of the buyers and procurement teams who are currently forming shortlists.
What do you want to be known for? Capability alone isn’t sufficient differentiation in a crowded market. The businesses breaking through are clear about the specific problems they solve and communicate that consistently.
How quickly can a potential client understand your relevance? If the answer isn’t ‘immediately’, that’s a positioning problem, not a capability problem.
An Honest Reflection of Where the Market Sits
There’s no clean narrative that captures the North Sea supply chain right now. It’s not decline. It’s not growth. It’s an extended period of adjustment where long-term energy transition ambitions and short-term fiscal and operational pressures are pulling in different directions.
Some businesses are navigating this well. They’ve tightened their positioning, maintained consistent visibility, and used this period to build credibility in the spaces their buyers actually occupy. They’re not waiting for the market to improve to invest in how they show up.
Others are waiting. And some of them will find, when activity picks up, that they’ve been edged off shortlists they didn’t realise they’d left.
Where Do You Sit in This Market?
In a market defined by uncertainty, the businesses that maintain clarity about who they are and what they offer, and stay visible to the buyers who need them – are the ones best placed to move quickly when conditions improve.
At AB Fiftyone, we work with North Sea supply chain businesses on exactly this: building the positioning and visibility that keeps you commercially relevant, even when the market isn’t making it easy.
If you want an honest assessment of where you stand, we’re always open to a conversation.
